Have UK measures turned the tide on coronavirus

Unimaginable to a generation which thought it was immune to the usual cycle of pandemic of four thousand bed hospital is taking shape in London fast XL center as the gears up its response to this modern day pandemic appreciation for the workers building the temporary nineteen Gale hospital which will form a vital front in the fight against corona virus what you see here is a mass mobilisation taking place right across the country but also at these new Nightingale hospitals has been an extraordinary team effort preparations on the front line as the government’s chief scientific adviser delivered some potentially good news sir Patrick vallance as the UK lockdown is working as he published
Roth which shows that the use of cars national rail and in London tubes and buses has fallen dramatically the measures have been taken are having a very big effect on contact I showed you the data on transport you to dramatic reductions in the amount of transport being used the dramatic reductions input for we know of course that things like restaurants and pubs which are places where people aggregated been closed hospital emissions are rising by roughly one thousand a day but sir Patrick said they are doing so at a constant rate which suggests there is not a farce acceleration tells you that actually was a bit more stable than it has been I do expect that number to continue expect the number of people coming every day to be about that it may get up a little bit and then in two or three weeks you would expect that to
Blige amen to start go down a bit and the numbers as projected are designed as the two petty officers said to keep this below the capacity and then a bold prediction the are value which described the number of people on average infected by a person with the virus may be heading down with the idea is to get that number below one at which point the epidemic stops and starts to go down on the basis of the contact you would expect that our value now in terms of the early phases of transmission in the community to be coming down or the low one cautiously upbeat assessment from one of the most senior government scientist at the heart of the battle against corona virus sir Patrick vallance wonder of much tougher days ahead and no time frame
Britons on people’s movements may be easy I had a message for the former health secretary who’s been critical of the government’s response tentative signs of hope have to be incredibly impressed with the mobilisation we seen on the n h s side the full field hospitals the thirty three thousand beds that have been released the seven hundred and thirty thousand volunteers the requisitioning of beds in the independent sector nothing like this in our lifetimes and I think if you can find what the n h s has done on the supply side is it worth a bet with the very draconian social distancing measures the guns of eyes in the last week you know that light at the end of the tunnel is not as impossible as it may have felt a few days ago dramatically
version of the scale of the you k response to the corona virus but a warning to that we are in the very early stages of dealing with this pandemic they walk down he joins me now with some more of the numbers of the day neck let’s start with those who have died is there any direction of travel here yet well they’re saying it’s all your sad but expected direction of travel so as you say the tragic human toll of the department of health announced that as of five PM yesterday are those who have been hospitalized one thousand four hundred and eight have died and that is a one hundred and eighty increase on the day before sad but in line with expectations now you remember last week the numbers moved around a bit after we reported that the government was changing the time frame in which it was releasing those numbers to bring the four parts of the UK are absolutely on the same line there’s going to be changed again because from tomorrow
it’s for national statistics is going to be releasing weekly specifics on deaths and it will take into account deaths outside hospitals so again we can expect an increase in numbers of our fallen tonight running people will be looking for optimism there but presumably felt Alice too early to see any sort of pattern in a is that right yes that’s right I mean it was obviously quite significant interventions from sir Patrick vallance today but he was saying you know steady as you go and it will take some time to actually see the lockdown measures having an impact on the death rate and it were already on the testing because there have been a lot of aspirations here which haven’t always matched to the numbers of the testing done on the day well I think it would be fair to say that we’ve had mixed messages from the government on this over the last thirty six hours so yesterday Michael Gove stated with great confidence that there were ten thousand
the day then Helen whately the health minister on the today programme this morning said that it was more like seven thousand we got to rebuke from number ten saying those ministers which are speaking to figures provided by public health England but we also got some clarity from number ten so what they said is that the UK can conduct and thousand nine hundred and forty nine tests today and then they said that in the twenty four hours up to nine am on Saturday nine thousand one hundred and fourteen tests have been conducted on around seven thousand people now the reason for the discrepancy is that there are a number of medical staff who need to have multiple tests performed on them but clearly this is a matter of deep sensitivity the government I like daily president with the foreign secretary Dominic raab read very carefully from a prepared statement when better it be a sky news set in why on earth are we lagging so far behind south Korea
and Germany and looking very carefully at his notes he said we’re operating on multiple fronts and yes we are trying to buy a lot of testing kids no thanks very much indeed we’re all joining us now a director of the centre for behaviour change at used Mickey labour shadow health secretary Jon Ashworth from his constituency in left and the president of the doctors’ association not to tell me back rotten thanks to all for joining us this evening at Jon just gonna start with you on where you read the government tonight we don’t want to over play this but it has been a good day for that strategy has somebody hopeful and I agree with Jeremy Holmes what he said in your package a few moments the girl we all hope to God that the social measures that have been implemented I beginning to harm impact there are still questions about why we are not scaling up
for the level we need we know the world health organization has urged the world to tap and also said the unless you’re testing you don’t know the prevalence of the virus in your wider community one of the questions I want the government to the chief scientific advisers who are saying is how can he how can I offer the greater degree of certainty and hope that they’ve offered as today if we don’t have a better understanding of the prevalence of the virus in the wider community because because of less we’re tackling at levels like Germany are wishes five on a thousand not going to know where the virus hotspots are the community we were promised ten thousand test today I think on March the eleventh what was still not at seventy thousand a week this is even before we get to the long term ambition of twenty five thousand a day so we just need the greatest
is that cause he coming to you talk about Roger are you being told whether this is a strategy or whether they just lack the sufficient means and capacity to test because we don’t understand that and to be only if we don’t on the sound yet either Emily we’ve had a lot of confused messaging from this government a couple of weeks ago front line and its software promised testing to get those of us who are currently self isolating back to the front line facts work no coffee at that time about how much of this testing being ramping up was going to be allocated to frontline soft if any of it little Friday we heard again that yes brought my staffs will be tested but again no meat on a bone to the announcement at all and then we finally had some hope in that we’ve had in a
when I asked trust to identify software at home he could be tested and then brought back to work if there has been negative for the numbers that we’ve heard are that fifteen percent of those paths for it has should be allocated to solve for a home now we know today from the Royal college of physicians the twenty-five percent of doctors currently at home by their own well or starving there are over a hundred fifty thousand doctors in the UK this just doesn’t add up to us at all look let me just ask you because we’ve seen the exel centre now the Nightingale hospital pulled out of the house it seemed with remarkable speed efficiency we’ve seen the social distancing measures and the graphs from Patrick balance today showing the effect they were having do you believe that you are back from the brink on this
even with those numbers of staff down I am so of my colleagues have been working on the excel centre and it has a nice gal in an incredible feat in fact I just bought in tears to work there myself as an intensive care doctor but I’ll be really honest with you things things are really tough on the front line right now my colleagues in London are a f be honest second completely broken we’re seeing a lot of patients get sick a lot of patients get sick very very quickly and start saying its due encroached on our physical capacity yes the effort has been phenomenal but we haven’t quite reached off the I suspect the worst is yet to come was all of us want that light at the end of the tunnel unworried me I’m trying to work
whether we are still expecting that peak in two weeks time to be as bad as they imagined it would be at the beginning of this do you think there is a momentum towards a new direction of travel now in terms of how we’ve got on top of this or when he listened to it a doctor about it sounds like there are still many people on their knees well if I could come at it from a slightly different angle and that is the public’s response to the advice to stay at home and the extent to which that is likely to continue over the next few weeks it’s been magnificent over this last week which is excellent but we know from the evidence the longer that this sort of quarantining rifle ation goes on the more difficult it becomes and there are two types of problems one is
frustration and boredom depression for those living on their own loneliness and for those living with other people especially in crowded conditions relationship problems and tensions and we’ve already been hearing about a domestic abuse sadly across several countries and we know that these kind of problems get worse as time goes on and we also know that these kind of problems are worse for those on lower incomes and financial insecurities so I think that in the situation the government must plan ahead no we can look at the little look at the evidence see what the likely problems are and plans to try and prevent this so that we keep the public with our and ensures that we carry on it just let me ask you what that means
would you prefer not to have the government saying this could last up to six months because it will depress people to make them feel that there is no way out or would you prefer people to be told that even if it’s going to be the harsh reality we know the evidence that transparent on its open communication is by far and away the best and people like certainty whether it’s certain safe but a good exclamation if there is not certainty and I think the idea of as we heard yesterday saying three weeks and then it’s going to be reviews and then we’ll see what happens for the next stage but we do know that this is only week one you know there will be two three possibly several weeks after that my point I’m making is that are likely to be strains and stresses people living in
front kinds of conditions and the government should at this point be ensuring for example that five million self employed people don’t have to wait till June for cash and to be their children and they should be ensuring that every single household has gotten off social support and material support to keep them going through this period and not be on the back first being captured when the problems arise because you look at the evidence and they’re predictable international mixes raised some very tangible points I just want to ask you what you would do in terms of momentum in terms of the messaging do you think people need to hear positive news like this or do you think you lose people as soon as she say that rachel’s distant thing is already working no I think it entirely incumbent minister
officials being spotty clear and honest with people what Susan was always absolutely spot on which is why I come back to my original point unless we have extensive testing in the community unless we really run this testing out now will have to be in lock down for much longer or we will simply go through cycles of lockdown he’s locked down in itself is a blunt tool to defeat this virus you have to combine it with an extensive testing program in the community like Germany doing and the government needs to explain to us why we are not ramping up why we not doing five hundred thousand tattoos like Germany with speculation it’s because bottlenecks in global supply of the chemicals that were involved as local agents about the case the government just need to come out and explain it to us of us are asking is it because they didn’t order it earlier I mean we don’t know the government have to give us this absolute clarity now as to why our testing capacity
about the width some early European Nations but this is so important that we run for testing that is how we escape this lockdown in the end thank you all so much to do thank you


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